Singapore Market Analysis: Index rebounds but remains below key moving averages
The Straits Times Index (STI) recovered 0.60% to 5436.14 but remains below its 20-day and 50-day averages, keeping the broader technical bias weak. USD/SGD is holding above both moving averages, while its RSI remains below the traditionally overbought zone. DBS Group also remains below its key moving averages despite a modest daily rebound. Fed Chairman Warsh’s high-impact speech is the main scheduled event to monitor for currency and sentiment volatility.
What to watch today
- Straits Times Index (STI): 5422.49, 5392.61 and 5441.49.
- USD/SGD: 1.2831 pivot, 1.2847 resistance and 1.2806 support.
- DBS Group: 74.35 resistance, 73.80 pivot and 73.21 support.
- Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks: Fri 16 Oct, 07:30 UAE.
- Monitor ATR-related volatility after the high-impact speech.
Technical analysis
Straits Times Index (STI)
Bearish5,436.14The Straits Times Index (STI) is below its SMA20 at 5591.19 and SMA50 at 5665.01, with the recent range still close to its 20-day low.
- Last close
- 5,436.14
- 1 day
- +0.60%
- 5 days
- +0.63%
- 20 days
- -3.89%
- SMA 20
- 5,591.19
- SMA 50
- 5,665.01
- RSI 14
- 34.5
- ATR 14
- 67.58
- 20-day range
- 5,362.72 – 5,749.66
- Daily pivot
- 5,392.61
The Straits Times Index (STI) closed at 5436.14 after trading between 5401.25 and 5450.18. It remains below the 20-day average at 5591.19, the 50-day average at 5665.01 and the EMA20 at 5548.99. The RSI, a momentum measure ranging from 0 to 100, is 34.45, indicating weak momentum without reaching the commonly watched oversold area.
The index is above its pivot at 5392.61 and has also moved above pivot resistance at 5422.49, but it remains just below the next pivot level at 5441.49. The recent 20-day low at 5362.72 remains an important downside reference, while the 20-day high at 5749.66 shows the wider recovery hurdle.
USD/SGD
Bullish1.2820USD/SGD is above its SMA20 at 1.2791 and SMA50 at 1.2751, with price positioned in the upper half of its recent 20-day range.
- Last close
- 1.2820
- 1 day
- -0.13%
- 5 days
- +0.11%
- 20 days
- +0.48%
- SMA 20
- 1.2791
- SMA 50
- 1.2751
- RSI 14
- 59.3
- ATR 14
- 0.0037
- 20-day range
- 1.2739 – 1.2871
- Daily pivot
- 1.2831
USD/SGD closed at 1.2820 after a narrow session between 1.2813 and 1.2827. The pair remains above its SMA20 at 1.2791, SMA50 at 1.2751 and EMA20 at 1.2789. Its RSI is 59.2552, showing positive but not extreme momentum.
Price is just below the pivot at 1.2831 and the first pivot resistance at 1.2847. A move through those levels would bring the 20-day high at 1.2871 into focus, while the recent low at 1.2813 and pivot support at 1.2806 provide nearby downside references.
DBS Group (D05.SI)
Bearish74.32DBS Group is below its SMA20 at 76.44, SMA50 at 76.64 and EMA20 at 75.77, despite trading above its recent 20-day low.
- Last close
- 74.32
- 1 day
- +0.77%
- 5 days
- +1.31%
- 20 days
- -3.30%
- SMA 20
- 76.44
- SMA 50
- 76.64
- RSI 14
- 40.1
- ATR 14
- 1.24
- 20-day range
- 72.50 – 78.56
- Daily pivot
- 73.80
DBS Group closed at 74.32 after trading between 73.65 and 74.49, gaining 0.77% on the day. The price remains below the SMA20 at 76.44, SMA50 at 76.64 and EMA20 at 75.77, keeping the short-term trend under pressure. The RSI, a momentum measure, is 40.05, which reflects weak momentum without being deeply oversold.
DBS Group is above its pivot at 73.80 and is testing the first pivot resistance at 74.35. A sustained move above that level could bring 74.94 into view, while the pivot support at 73.21 and the second support at 72.66 are important downside references. The 20-day and 60-day lows are both 72.50.
Market events (next 48 hours)
| Time (UAE) | Currency | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 16 Oct, 07:30 UAE | USD | Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks | High | – | – |
The main scheduled event is Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks at Fri 16 Oct, 07:30 UAE. The event is marked high impact and may increase volatility in USD/SGD, while changes in currency sentiment can also affect regional equities.
- USD/SGD: Monitor whether price reacts around the 1.2831 pivot and the 1.2806 support level.
- Straits Times Index (STI) and DBS Group: Watch for changes in sentiment near their nearby pivot and support levels.
Algo insight: how a rules-based system treats today
A rules-based approach would treat the Straits Times Index (STI) and DBS Group cautiously because both remain below their short- and medium-term moving averages. ATR, or Average True Range, measures typical price movement; current ATR readings are 67.58 for the Straits Times Index (STI), 1.24 for DBS Group and 0.0037 for USD/SGD. An algorithm can use these readings to adjust stop distance and position size rather than applying the same distance to every instrument.
Because the Fed speech is marked high impact, a rules-based system may avoid opening new exposure immediately around the 07:30 UAE release and wait for spreads and volatility to settle. It can also require confirmation around pivot levels and use session timing filters, while reducing position size when price movement expands sharply relative to ATR.
Important: This analysis is general market commentary produced for educational purposes and is not investment advice, a recommendation or a solicitation to trade. Price data comes from public sources and may be delayed or contain errors. Trading foreign exchange, commodities, crypto-assets and equities carries a substantial risk of loss. Fino Ways LLC does not manage client funds and does not guarantee any outcome. Read the full Risk Disclosure and Disclaimer.