Forex Market Analysis: Dollar pairs diverge as sterling rebounds and rupee pressure eases

EUR/USD closed at 1.1230, close to the 1.1231 pivot and below both the 1.1284 20-day average and the 1.1470 50-day average. The pair has gained 0.22% over five days but remains down 2.18% over 20 days, keeping the broader technical bias pressured.

Momentum is weak but not deeply oversold. The 14-day RSI, a measure of recent momentum, is 35.5, while the 14-day ATR, a measure of typical daily movement, is 0.0076. Holding above the 1.1191 pivot support could keep the recent rebound structure intact; a break below it would bring 1.1169 and the 1.1114 20-day low into focus.

On the upside, 1.1253 is the first pivot resistance, followed by 1.1292. A sustained move above 1.1292 would place price closer to the 20-day average, but the pair would still need to reclaim 1.1470 to materially improve the longer-term structure.

GBP/USD closed at 1.3327, above the 1.3304 pivot and the 1.3253 20-day average. It has risen 0.65% over five days, although the 20-day change remains slightly negative at -0.46%. The pair is still below the 1.3420 50-day average, so the short-term recovery has not yet changed the wider range structure.

The 14-day RSI is 52.3, indicating balanced momentum rather than an extreme condition. ATR is 0.0078, suggesting that daily swings can remain relatively wide. The first downside reference is 1.3237, followed by 1.3202, while 1.3340 is the nearest pivot resistance.

A move through 1.3340 would put the 1.3389 20-day high in view. A clear recovery beyond that level could improve the short-term tone, but the 1.3420 50-day average remains an important broader trend reference.

USD/JPY closed at 158.07, just above the 158.00 pivot and above its 157.95 20-day average and 157.71 50-day average. The 20-day change is positive at 0.65%, although the pair has moved slightly lower over one and five days. This points to a firm but consolidating structure.

The 14-day RSI is 53.0, close to neutral, while ATR is 0.76 yen. The first support zone is around 157.83, which also matches the 20-day exponential average, followed by 157.52. On the upside, 158.31 and 158.49 are the next pivot references.

The recent 20-day high at 159.00 remains the upper range boundary, while 156.40 is the lower boundary. Price holding above the moving-average cluster would preserve the constructive bias, but repeated rejection near 158.49 could keep the pair range-bound.

USD/INR closed at 94.95, above the 94.69 pivot after gaining 0.45% on the day. However, the pair is down 1.89% over five days and 1.11% over 20 days, while remaining below the 95.92 20-day average, 95.72 20-day exponential average and 95.56 50-day average.

The 14-day RSI is 40.4, showing weak momentum without an extreme oversold reading. ATR is 0.66 rupee, so short-term moves can still be meaningful relative to the current price. The 94.69 pivot and 94.52 20-day low are the main lower references, while 95.21 is the first pivot resistance.

A recovery above 95.21 could bring the 95.56 50-day average into focus. Until the moving-average area is reclaimed, the recent decline remains the dominant structure, although the one-day rebound shows that downside momentum is not continuous.