Crypto Market Analysis: Crypto majors remain below key averages as selling pressure persists
Crypto markets remain under pressure, with Bitcoin close to its pivot but below its 20-day average. Ethereum, Solana and BNB are trading below both their 20-day and 50-day averages, while their five-day and 20-day performance remains negative. RSI readings point to weak momentum, although they do not by themselves confirm a reversal. The only listed event is the low-impact TIC Long-Term Purchases release at 00:00 UAE time.
What to watch today
- Bitcoin: 81472 pivot, 80405 support and 83209 resistance.
- Ethereum: 2408 pivot, 2353 support and 2496 resistance.
- Solana: 104.18 pivot, 102.18 support and 107.32 resistance.
- BNB: 725.2 pivot, 716.2 support and 737.6 resistance.
- 00:00 UAE: US TIC Long-Term Purchases, marked low impact.
Technical analysis
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bearish81,470Bitcoin is below its 20-day average at 83560 and EMA20 at 82750 but slightly above its 50-day average at 81251, remaining in the lower half of its recent range.
- Last close
- 81,470
- 1 day
- -0.82%
- 5 days
- -2.64%
- 20 days
- -3.48%
- SMA 20
- 83,560
- SMA 50
- 81,251
- RSI 14
- 46.0
- ATR 14
- 2,002
- 20-day range
- 79,736 – 87,146
- Daily pivot
- 81,472
Bitcoin closed at 81470, almost exactly at the pivot of 81472, after a 0.82% daily decline. It is below the 20-day high at 87146 and remains below the 20-day average at 83560. The 50-day average at 81251 is nearby, so that level may help distinguish short-term stabilisation from renewed weakness.
RSI, a momentum gauge, is 46, showing mildly weak momentum rather than an extreme reading. ATR, which measures the typical daily price range, is 2002, indicating that moves around the 80405 support and 83209 resistance can be relatively wide. The 20-day low at 79736 and pivot support at 80405 are the main downside reference points.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Bearish2,425Ethereum is below its 20-day average at 2586, 50-day average at 2553 and recent 20-day range midpoint, with price close to the lower end of its range.
- Last close
- 2,425
- 1 day
- -0.64%
- 5 days
- -4.33%
- 20 days
- -10.03%
- SMA 20
- 2,586
- SMA 50
- 2,553
- RSI 14
- 39.0
- ATR 14
- 86
- 20-day range
- 2,321 – 2,774
- Daily pivot
- 2,408
Ethereum closed at 2425, up slightly from its open but down 0.64% on the day. The five-day decline is 4.33% and the 20-day decline is 10.03%, while price remains below the 20-day average at 2586 and the 50-day average at 2553. This keeps the broader short-term structure weak.
RSI is 39, reflecting weak momentum without being at an extreme level. ATR is 86, so a move through the 2408 pivot may carry toward the 2353 pivot support or the 2321 20-day low. On the upside, 2496 and 2552 are the nearest resistance references.
Solana (SOL/USD)
Bearish104.85Solana is below its 20-day average at 114.01 and 50-day average at 109.38, trading near the lower portion of its 20-day range after sustained declines.
- Last close
- 104.85
- 1 day
- -0.46%
- 5 days
- -5.75%
- 20 days
- -13.65%
- SMA 20
- 114.01
- SMA 50
- 109.38
- RSI 14
- 39.4
- ATR 14
- 4.26
- 20-day range
- 101.03 – 124.62
- Daily pivot
- 104.18
Solana closed at 104.85, down 0.46% for the day. Its five-day decline is 5.75% and its 20-day decline is 13.65%, leaving price below the 20-day average at 114.01, the 50-day average at 109.38 and EMA20 at 110.69. The recent 20-day low is 101.03.
RSI is 39.35, indicating weak momentum. ATR is 4.26, so daily volatility remains meaningful relative to the nearby pivot at 104.18. Holding above 102.18 could support a test of 107.32, while the 101.03 low and 99.04 pivot support are important downside references.
BNB (BNB/USD)
Bearish721.1BNB is below its 20-day average at 758.1 and 50-day average at 744.5, with price close to its 20-day low at 712.7 after a persistent lower-range move.
- Last close
- 721.1
- 1 day
- -1.04%
- 5 days
- -4.30%
- 20 days
- -6.74%
- SMA 20
- 758.1
- SMA 50
- 744.5
- RSI 14
- 39.8
- ATR 14
- 20.1
- 20-day range
- 712.7 – 808.4
- Daily pivot
- 725.2
BNB closed at 721.1, down 1.04% on the day, with five-day and 20-day declines of 4.3% and 6.74%. Price is below the 20-day average at 758.1, the 50-day average at 744.5 and EMA20 at 748.7. The nearby pivot at 725.2 is above the closing price, keeping the immediate structure cautious.
RSI is 39.8, showing weak momentum, while ATR is 20.1 and points to a relatively broad typical daily range. The 716.2 pivot support and 712.7 20-day low are the closest downside levels. On the upside, 725.2 and 737.6 may act as resistance before the 50-day average at 744.5.
Market events (next 48 hours)
| Time (UAE) | Currency | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 17 Oct, 00:00 UAE | USD | TIC Long-Term Purchases | Low | 75.2B | -27.9B |
The only listed event is US TIC Long-Term Purchases at 00:00 UAE time on Saturday, 17 October. It is marked as low impact, with a forecast of 75.2B and a previous reading of -27.9B.
Because this event concerns long-term purchases of US assets, markets can typically react through changes in US-dollar liquidity and broader risk sentiment. With the event classified as low impact, any reaction may be limited, but elevated short-term volatility can still make levels such as Bitcoin's 81472 pivot and Ethereum's 2408 pivot more sensitive.
Algo insight: how a rules-based system treats today
A rules-based approach would classify the four markets as cautious because prices are below their 20-day averages, while Ethereum, Solana and BNB are also below their 50-day averages. RSI readings are weak but not uniformly at extreme levels, so an algorithm would generally require confirmation rather than treat the readings alone as a reversal signal.
ATR measures typical daily movement and is 2002 for Bitcoin, 86 for Ethereum, 4.26 for Solana and 20.1 for BNB. A volatility-aware system can use these ranges to avoid placing risk limits too close to normal market noise and reduce position size when required distance becomes wider. It would also avoid initiating new exposure near the scheduled release, then reassess after price and volatility settle.
Because crypto trades continuously, session timing is less defined than in traditional markets. A rules-based process would still separate the quiet overnight period from higher-liquidity UAE, European and US market hours, while checking whether pivots and moving averages hold across the daily close.
Important: This analysis is general market commentary produced for educational purposes and is not investment advice, a recommendation or a solicitation to trade. Price data comes from public sources and may be delayed or contain errors. Trading foreign exchange, commodities, crypto-assets and equities carries a substantial risk of loss. Fino Ways LLC does not manage client funds and does not guarantee any outcome. Read the full Risk Disclosure and Disclaimer.